Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.014474 0.016375 0.018434 0.020829 0.023539 0.026512 0.030021
2025-10-05 0.011817 0.014518 0.017690 0.021694 0.026617 0.032478 0.039996
2025-10-12 0.010246 0.013313 0.017121 0.022202 0.028815 0.037141 0.048448
2025-10-19 0.009168 0.012471 0.016765 0.022762 0.030939 0.041722 0.057067
2025-10-26 0.008102 0.011468 0.016019 0.022631 0.032018 0.044903 0.064002
2025-11-02 0.007292 0.010695 0.015460 0.022634 0.033194 0.048218 0.071320
2025-11-09 0.006506 0.009854 0.014697 0.022227 0.033682 0.050524 0.077302
2025-11-16 0.006022 0.009400 0.014432 0.022495 0.035145 0.054319 0.085771
2025-11-23 0.005495 0.008821 0.013915 0.022309 0.035860 0.056995 0.092689
2025-11-30 0.005199 0.008570 0.013871 0.022841 0.037723 0.061568 0.102972
2025-12-07 0.004682 0.007911 0.013115 0.022146 0.037514 0.062773 0.107787
2025-12-14 0.004294 0.007429 0.012604 0.021798 0.037831 0.064830 0.114160
2025-12-21 0.003875 0.006865 0.011917 0.021109 0.037532 0.065869 0.118947
2025-12-28 0.003756 0.006812 0.012097 0.021942 0.039964 0.071817 0.132980
2026-01-04 0.003596 0.006669 0.012103 0.022459 0.041860 0.076951 0.145952
2026-01-11 0.003456 0.006550 0.012139 0.023025 0.043882 0.082459 0.160078
2026-01-18 0.003230 0.006250 0.011818 0.022893 0.044570 0.085531 0.169782
2026-01-25 0.003043 0.006006 0.011581 0.022896 0.045509 0.089135 0.180810
2026-02-01 0.002820 0.005676 0.011152 0.022484 0.045592 0.091073 0.188643
2026-02-08 0.002697 0.005531 0.011070 0.022755 0.047058 0.095845 0.202656
2026-02-15 0.002532 0.005289 0.010775 0.022567 0.047563 0.098705 0.212901
2026-02-22 0.002455 0.005223 0.010831 0.023105 0.049622 0.104908 0.230786
2026-03-01 0.002261 0.004893 0.010318 0.022401 0.048978 0.105392 0.236243